Expert picks and betting tips for the 2022 PGA Championship

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The second golf major of the year begins Thursday at the 2022 PGA Championship from Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Among those competing are World No. 1 and Masters champion Scottie Scheffler, 2021 U.S. Open champion Jon Rahm and two-time major winner Collin Morikawa. The last time the PGA Championship was held here, Tiger Woods earned the victory. Woods is back this year but with only April’s Masters under his belt since his 2021 car crash.

Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? Our golf and betting experts break down the PGA Championship field.

Jump to a section:
Experts’ picks to win | Betting value picks to win | Notable golfers odds | Props and more


Expert picks

Matt Barrie, ESPN
Winner:
Jordan Spieth

Michael Collins, ESPN.com
Winner:
Scottie Scheffler

Michael Eaves, ESPN
Winner:
Cameron Smith

Charlotte Gibson, ESPN.com
Winner:
Scottie Scheffler

Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com
Winner:
Justin Thomas

Marty Smith, ESPN
Winner:
Jon Rahm

Curtis Strange, ESPN
Winner:
Scottie Scheffler

Wright Thompson, ESPN.com
Winner:
Tiger Woods

Paolo Uggetti, ESPN.com
Winner:
Jordan Spieth

Tom VanHaaren, ESPN.com
Winner:
Justin Thomas

Scott Van Pelt, ESPN
Winner:
Jon Rahm

Kevin Van Valkenburg, ESPN.com
Winner:
Jordan Spieth

Josh Weinfuss, ESPN.com
Winner:
Max Homa


Betting value picks to win

Our betting experts give you picks to win based on value. We look at the betting board and tell you who has the best chance to cash your ticket.

Anita Marks, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner: Scottie Scheffler

Why he’ll win: This is Scheffler’s tournament to lose. He is the hottest golfer on the planet right now, winning four of his past seven starts. The course metrics are set up nicely for him. He can hit it long. Accuracy won’t be a problem with the wider fairways. He ranks third in greens in regulation (GIR) and is a tremendous putter.

David Bearman, Sports Betting Deputy Editor, ESPN.com
Winner: Justin Thomas (14-1)

Why he’ll win: I will be playing both Thomas and Rory McIlroy, but I am giving the edge to Thomas based on his overall body of work this season. McIlroy had an incredible Sunday at Augusta last month, but Thomas has better approach stats and has been more consistent all season.

Chris Fallica, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner:
Collin Morikawa (16-1)

Why he’ll win: Morikawa is already a two-time major winner, and he has finished no worse than eighth in any of his past four events. His iron play gives him a chance to win on any type of course, and he ranks in the top nine in GIR in each of his past five majors. If he putts decently, he’ll be right there on Sunday.

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner: Xander Schauffele (22-1)

Why he’ll win: Schauffele has always been an elite performer at major championships. He has finished in the top 10 in nine of 20 majors he has played and has been T-3 or better four times. His form did not look promising until the Byron Nelson this past weekend. At 22-1, there is some betting value on Schauffele to finally break through and win his first career major.

Doug Kezirian, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner: Patrick Cantlay (20-1)

Why he’ll win: Cantlay is still seeking his first career major but has already experienced plenty of success with five wins on the PGA and European tours. He currently ranks third in strokes gained, and 20-1 odds seem like enough for me to fire.

Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN Betting Analyst
Winner: Jordan Spieth (18-1)

Why he’ll win: After missing the cut at Augusta National, Spieth has rounded into form at just the right moment, winning the RBC Heritage in April prior to posting a solo second at the Byron Nelson. Spieth opened the week at 20-1, before his price was quickly adjusted south to 18-1. I wouldn’t be shocked if this dipped a bit further to 16-1.


Odds of winning the 2022 PGA Championship


Props and more

Our betting experts have more than just bets to win. Here are some props to target for the entire event, from top 10s to made cuts to tournament matchups.

Tiger Woods to make cut (-140)
Bearman: It will be tougher to make the cut here than it was at the Masters, but Woods has had another month to heal and hasn’t played since Augusta, giving him more time to see Southern Hills and work on his short game. I don’t expect a win or a top-10 finish, but -140 to be in top 70 should be good enough.

Rory McIlroy top-10 finish (+175)
Bearman: While I gave a slight edge to Thomas to win, I’ll lean McIlroy for top 10, something he has done at 18 of the past 32 majors. That’s consistency at its finest. McIlroy also is +300 for a top-5 finish, if you really want to roll the dice.

Justin Thomas top-10 finish (+110)
Fallica: Thomas has been tabbed by many to have won a second major by now, but it just hasn’t happened. He has been hit or miss in majors lately, but he appears to be healthy, and his game is certainly headed in the right direction after a great West Coast swing, followed by a top-10 finish at the Masters and a solid week in Texas.

Patrick Cantlay top-5 finish (+350)
Marks: His game has improved each week. Cantlay ranks in the top 20 in strokes gained off the tee (SG OTT), approach and around the green; and most importantly, he is one of the best Bentgrass putters in the field.

Hideki Matsuyama top-10 finish (+275)
Marks:
Matsuyama’s irons are on fire. He gained 9 shots on approach and a T-3 at the Byron Nelson last week. He already has a win under his belt this season and knows what it takes to win a major.

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